The Problem With Forecasts
(or…why are we recommending faster firetrucks?)
In what area of business would it be acceptable to be only sixty percent accurate the majority of the time?
Time-phased requirements planning is designed to consume a forecast – which is usually wrong. When an inaccurate forecast and due dates collide, it is difficult to transition to fire prevention when so much time, budget, and effort is spent designing faster firetrucks.
At the recent Gartner Supply Chain Conferences in Barcelona and Denver, virtually all vendors present were offering faster fire engines, longer ladders, louder alarms, and bigger hoses. There are solutions, methods, and technology that can remedy a significant part of these challenges.
But as business becomes more proactive and outcome-driven the same old approach won’t cut it. Choosing to continue to fight fires but with faster fire engines echoes the common refrain, that’s the way we’ve always done it.
Request a copy of our most recent presentation: “Why a Forecast is Not a Plan And What MIT Research Reveals.”
Learn how to focus on “fire prevention”. Feel free to review and share it with your colleagues.